US President Donald Trump has predicted a sharp decline in oil and gasoline prices once the United States achieves what he described as a victory in its ongoing conflict with Iran, saying petrol prices in the US could eventually fall below $2 a gallon.
In a post on Truth Social on September 7, Trump said oil prices would fall “precipitously” after the US wins the war with Iran. He first projected gasoline prices at around $3 a gallon before saying they could ultimately drop below $2.
Trump also reiterated that Iran would not be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon and said the developments would happen quickly.
Trump links fuel prices to Iran conflict
Trump's comments directly linked the current rise in energy prices to the conflict with Iran and the disruption surrounding key oil routes in the Middle East.
The prediction comes as global energy markets remain highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for international oil shipments. Iran has recently threatened to establish a maritime exclusion zone in the Gulf, while shipping through the strategic waterway has declined amid the conflict.
The continuing uncertainty has kept crude prices elevated, despite expectations that an eventual end to hostilities could ease some of the supply pressure.
US gasoline prices remain elevated
Trump's forecast comes at a time when US consumers are still facing comparatively high gasoline prices.
The national average was around $4.15 per gallon around Labor Day, according to data cited in recent reports, significantly above the level Trump is predicting for the period after the conflict. Diesel prices have also remained elevated.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright has stopped short of guaranteeing a sustained decline in fuel prices, saying gasoline futures indicated prices were more likely to fall than rise. (Benzinga)
Crude oil prices remain near $100
The president's prediction also comes against a backdrop of rising crude prices.
Brent crude has moved close to $100 a barrel, with reports attributing the increase to concerns over supply disruptions and the continuing instability around the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate has also traded above $90 a barrel.
The direction of oil prices will depend heavily on whether the conflict escalates further, how quickly shipping through the Gulf can normalise and whether additional supplies become available.
Iran warns against attacks on energy infrastructure
Trump's comments came as tensions between Washington and Tehran remained high.
Iranian officials have warned that attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure could trigger retaliation against US-linked oil and gas interests in the region. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has warned that the country's energy facilities and regional US interests remain exposed to potential escalation.
The warnings have added another layer of uncertainty for energy markets already dealing with disrupted shipping routes.
What could determine future fuel prices?
A sustained decline in US gasoline prices would depend on several factors, including the restoration of oil shipments, increased crude supply and a reduction in geopolitical risk.
A conclusion to the Iran conflict could remove some of the geopolitical premium currently reflected in oil prices. However, the extent and speed of any decline cannot be established from Trump's statement alone.
Analysts cited in recent market reports have offered varying projections, with some expecting significantly lower crude prices if the conflict ends and supply disruptions ease, while others warn that continued instability could push prices higher.
Trump also reiterates Iran nuclear warning
Alongside his prediction on fuel prices, Trump again said Iran would not obtain a nuclear weapon.
His remarks come as the US-Iran conflict continues with no clear end in sight. Iran has maintained its ability to threaten regional shipping and energy infrastructure, while Washington has continued military and economic pressure on Tehran.
For consumers and financial markets, the immediate focus remains on developments in the Middle East and their impact on crude supply, shipping and fuel prices. Trump's projection of gasoline falling below $2 a gallon therefore remains a future political prediction rather than a confirmed price forecast.
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