Madhya Pradesh is experiencing one of its strongest monsoon spells of the season, with continuous rainfall over the past 60 hours driven by three active weather systems. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall across several parts of the state over the next 24 hours, prompting weather alerts in multiple districts.

According to IMD officials, the ongoing rainfall is being caused by the combined influence of an active monsoon trough, an upper-air cyclonic circulation, and an east-west shear zone. Together, these systems have created ideal conditions for widespread and persistent rainfall across central and western Madhya Pradesh.

Heavy Rain Continues Across the State

Rainfall has been reported in more than 40 districts, including major cities such as Bhopal, Indore, Ujjain, and Jabalpur. The prolonged showers have led to waterlogging in low-lying areas, disrupted traffic in several cities, and significantly lowered daytime temperatures.

At the same time, the sustained rainfall has improved water levels in rivers, reservoirs, and other water bodies, offering relief after an earlier rainfall deficit during the monsoon season.

IMD Issues Heavy Rain Alert for 17 Districts

The IMD has issued an Orange Alert for very heavy rainfall in:

• Alirajpur
• Dhar
• Barwani
• Khargone

A heavy rainfall warning has also been issued for:

• Neemuch
• Ratlam
• Ujjain
• Indore
• Sehore
• Seoni
• Mandla
• Balaghat
• Umaria
• Rewa
• Mauganj
• Sidhi
• Singrauli

Several other districts, including Bhopal, Raisen, Vidisha, Dewas, Gwalior, Jabalpur, Sagar, and Chhindwara, are expected to experience intermittent light to heavy showers throughout the day.

Why Is Rainfall So Intense?

According to weather experts, the primary reason behind the ongoing wet spell is a strong upper-air cyclonic circulation extending up to 7.6 kilometres above north-central Madhya Pradesh.

The active monsoon trough currently stretches from Bikaner through Banasthali, Guna, Damoh, Pendra Road, and Medinipur before reaching the northeast Bay of Bengal. This system is continuously drawing moisture from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, providing abundant moisture for cloud formation.

An additional east-west shear zone near 22° North latitude is strengthening thundercloud development, leading to spells of intense rainfall within short durations. Meteorologists say two additional supporting weather systems are also contributing to the widespread rainfall across the state.

Rainfall Deficit Narrows

The recent spell has helped improve Madhya Pradesh's seasonal rainfall position.

The state's rainfall deficit has steadily narrowed over the past three days:

• Monday: 17% below normal
• Tuesday: 14% below normal
• Wednesday: 11% below normal

So far this monsoon season, Madhya Pradesh has recorded approximately 307.9 mm of rainfall against the seasonal normal of 347.7 mm.

Eastern Madhya Pradesh remains around 15% below normal, while western Madhya Pradesh is approximately 8% below average.

Most Districts Still Await Normal Rainfall

Despite the recent improvement, 41 districts continue to receive below-normal rainfall. Most districts in eastern Madhya Pradesh remain deficient, with Niwari being one of the few exceptions.

Only 14 districts have recorded above-normal rainfall so far this season, including Bhopal, Indore, Ujjain, Sehore, Dewas, Harda, Rajgarh, Khargone, Neemuch, Burhanpur, Khandwa, Bhind, Agar Malwa, and Niwari.

Dewas Records Highest Rainfall

Among all districts, Dewas has received the highest rainfall so far, recording approximately 18.5 inches, nearly 49% above normal.

Other districts with significant rainfall include:

• Balaghat: 18 inches
• Sehore: 17.2 inches
• Seoni: 17 inches
• Bhopal: 16.4 inches
• Harda, Damoh, and Dindori: Around 16 inches each

In contrast, Alirajpur has recorded the lowest seasonal rainfall, with around 2.5 inches.

July Remains the Most Important Monsoon Month

Meteorologists note that July typically contributes nearly 40% of Madhya Pradesh's annual rainfall, making it the most crucial month of the southwest monsoon.

Although rainfall remained below normal during June and a prolonged dry spell affected early July, the current active weather systems are expected to further reduce the rainfall deficit if the wet spell continues over the coming days.

The IMD has advised residents in affected districts to remain alert for localized flooding, waterlogging, reduced visibility, and possible traffic disruptions as heavy rainfall is likely to persist over the next 24 hours.