The southwest monsoon has regained momentum in Madhya Pradesh after a nine-day pause, bringing widespread rainfall to several districts on Friday. Heavy showers were reported in Balaghat, Umaria and Dindori, while the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a heavy rainfall alert for Balaghat and Dindori and forecast thunderstorms and rain across 31 districts.

According to the IMD, the revival has been triggered by a low-pressure area developing over the Bay of Bengal, supported by three cyclonic circulations over the state. A western disturbance is also expected to become active over northwest India on July 19, which could further intensify rainfall across Madhya Pradesh.

Rainfall Deficit Narrows, But Concern Remains

The state had witnessed a prolonged weak monsoon phase over the past nine days, resulting in a decline in seasonal rainfall. Madhya Pradesh has received 243.3 mm of rainfall so far this monsoon, against the normal 281.3 mm, leaving the state with a 13% rainfall deficit.

Eastern Madhya Pradesh has recorded a 26% shortfall, while western districts remain 2% below normal.

Heavy Rain Warning for Two Districts

The IMD has issued a heavy rainfall warning for:

• Balaghat

• Dindori

Meanwhile, light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms is likely in:

Alirajpur, Dhar, Barwani, Indore, Khargone, Dewas, Khandwa, Burhanpur, Harda, Betul, Narmadapuram, Raisen, Sagar, Pandhurna, Chhindwara, Narsinghpur, Damoh, Niwari, Tikamgarh, Chhatarpur, Bhind, Datia, Panna, Satna, Rewa, Mauganj, Sidhi, Singrauli, Maihar, Katni, Jabalpur, Seoni, Mandla, Anuppur and Umaria.

However, districts including Bhopal, Gwalior, Morena, Sheopur, Shivpuri, Guna, Ashoknagar, Vidisha, Sehore, Rajgarh, Shajapur, Agar Malwa, Ujjain, Neemuch, Mandsaur, Ratlam and Jhabua are expected to continue experiencing warm and humid conditions with relatively limited rainfall.

Rainfall Distribution Across the State

As many as 35 districts continue to report below-normal rainfall, including Jabalpur, Rewa, Satna, Chhindwara, Dindori, Umaria and Balaghat.

On the other hand, 20 districts, including Bhopal, Indore, Ujjain, Dewas, Khandwa, Khargone, Sehore and Harda, have recorded above-normal rainfall this season.

Experts Expect Stronger Monsoon in Second Half of July

Weather expert Shailendra Kumar Nayak said the overall monsoon pattern remains favourable despite the temporary slowdown.

He noted that the intensity and movement of the developing low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal will determine how quickly rainfall activity strengthens across the state.

"If the weather systems remain favourable, most parts of Madhya Pradesh are likely to witness a fresh spell of widespread rainfall during the second half of July," he said.

July Crucial for Seasonal Rainfall

July contributes nearly 40% of Madhya Pradesh's annual monsoon rainfall, making it the most important month for agriculture and water resources.

The state's average annual rainfall is 37.3 inches, while major cities such as Bhopal, Indore, Jabalpur and Gwalior normally receive 38–39 inches during the season.

So far, Dewas has recorded the highest rainfall in the state with nearly 18 inches, exceeding normal levels by more than 100%. Bhopal has received 13.1 inches, while Indore and Sehore have recorded around 14 inches.

In contrast, Alirajpur remains the driest district, receiving only about 2.25 inches of rainfall, nearly 74% below normal.