Madhya Pradesh is witnessing a significant rainfall deficit after nearly a week of subdued monsoon activity, with 35 districts reporting below-normal rainfall and several eastern regions facing dry conditions. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the state has received 241.8 mm of rainfall so far this monsoon season, around 11% below the normal average of 270.3 mm.

The rainfall shortfall has been particularly severe across eastern Madhya Pradesh, including the Jabalpur, Rewa, Sagar and Shahdol divisions, where precipitation is reported to be 24% below normal. In contrast, western districts such as Bhopal, Indore, Ujjain, Narmadapuram and the Gwalior-Chambal region have recorded rainfall close to or slightly above seasonal averages.

New Weather Systems May Revive Monsoon

Meteorologists expect monsoon conditions to improve from July 19, with a fresh Western Disturbance forecast to become active over northwest India. Simultaneously, a developing weather system over the Bay of Bengal, supported by an active cyclonic circulation, is expected to strengthen rainfall activity across Madhya Pradesh during the second half of July.

According to IMD, the interaction of these systems could trigger a fresh spell of moderate to heavy rainfall across large parts of the state.

Light Rain Forecast for Several Districts Today

For Thursday, the weather department has forecast light rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms in several districts, including Indore, Jhabua, Alirajpur, Dhar, Burhanpur, Barwani, Khandwa, Khargone, Narmadapuram, Betul, Harda, Bhind, Datia, Jabalpur, Katni, Narsinghpur, Chhindwara, Pandhurna, Seoni, Balaghat, Mandla, Dindori, Rewa, Satna, Sidhi, Singrauli, Mauganj, Maihar, Shahdol, Umaria, Anuppur, Panna, Damoh, Chhatarpur, Tikamgarh and Niwari.

Meanwhile, districts including Morena, Gwalior, Sheopur, Shivpuri, Guna, Ashoknagar, Vidisha, Sagar, Raisen, Bhopal, Sehore, Rajgarh, Shajapur, Dewas, Ujjain, Agar Malwa, Ratlam, Neemuch and Mandsaur are likely to experience warm and humid weather with limited rainfall activity.

Eastern Region Remains a Concern

Weather expert Shailendra Kumar Nayak said that while the overall monsoon situation across Madhya Pradesh remains satisfactory, the persistent rainfall deficit in eastern districts has become a matter of concern for agriculture and water resources.

He noted that the movement and intensity of the upcoming low-pressure system would determine how quickly monsoon activity regains momentum across the state. If weather conditions remain favourable, most regions of Madhya Pradesh could witness a stronger phase of rainfall during the second fortnight of July.

July Crucial for Seasonal Rainfall

July traditionally contributes nearly 40% of Madhya Pradesh's annual monsoon rainfall, making the current slowdown significant. The state's average annual rainfall stands at 37.3 inches, with major cities such as Bhopal, Indore, Jabalpur and Gwalior generally receiving between 38 and 39 inches during the season.

Among districts, Dewas has emerged as the state's wettest so far, recording rainfall 102% above normal, while Alirajpur has received only around 2.25 inches, marking a 74% rainfall deficit.

Historically, cities such as Jabalpur, Bhopal and Indore receive substantial rainfall during July, and meteorologists believe the upcoming weather systems could help narrow the current deficit if widespread showers materialise in the coming days.