After several days of subdued monsoon activity, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a fresh spell of heavy rainfall across parts of Madhya Pradesh beginning August 6, as a western disturbance is expected to influence weather conditions over the state.

According to the IMD's Bhopal Meteorological Centre, August 4 and 5 are likely to witness only light rainfall and cloudy conditions across most districts, while widespread heavy showers are expected to resume from Wednesday.

Monsoon Activity Weakens

The state has not witnessed widespread heavy rainfall over the past four days, resulting in a further decline in seasonal rainfall figures.

Meteorological data shows Madhya Pradesh has received 404.2 mm (15.9 inches) of rainfall so far this monsoon season against the normal 482 mm (19 inches) expected by this time. This leaves the state with an overall rainfall deficit of 16 per cent.

On Monday, several districts experienced intermittent showers and overcast skies, while no region reported intense rainfall.

Eastern Region Faces Larger Deficit

Rainfall deficiency remains more pronounced in eastern Madhya Pradesh, where the seasonal shortfall has reached around 20 per cent.

Districts across the Jabalpur, Shahdol, Rewa and Sagar divisions have received below-normal rainfall, with deficits ranging from 1 per cent to 42 per cent. These include Anuppur, Balaghat, Chhatarpur, Chhindwara, Damoh, Dindori, Jabalpur, Katni, Maihar, Mandla, Mauganj, Narsinghpur, Niwari, Pandhurna, Panna, Rewa, Sagar, Satna, Seoni, Shahdol, Sidhi, Singrauli, Tikamgarh and Umaria.

Western MP Also Below Average

Western Madhya Pradesh, including the Bhopal, Indore, Ujjain, Narmadapuram and Gwalior-Chambal divisions, has recorded an average rainfall deficit of around 11 per cent.

Below-normal rainfall has been reported in districts such as Agar Malwa, Alirajpur, Ashoknagar, Betul, Bhopal, Datia, Dhar, Guna, Gwalior, Harda, Jhabua, Morena, Mandsaur, Narmadapuram, Neemuch, Raisen, Rajgarh, Ratlam, Shajapur, Sheopur, Shivpuri, Ujjain and Vidisha.

However, Barwani, Bhind, Burhanpur, Dewas, Indore, Khandwa and Khargone remain among the few districts that have recorded above-normal rainfall this season.

Weather Systems Present, But Weak Impact

The IMD said two cyclonic circulations and an active monsoon trough are currently positioned over the region. However, these systems are not significantly influencing Madhya Pradesh at present, resulting in weak rainfall activity despite favourable atmospheric conditions.

The weather department expects conditions to improve from August 6 as a western disturbance strengthens monsoon circulation over central India.

Rainfall Deficit Increased Despite July Recovery

Officials noted that June ended with a 14 per cent rainfall deficit. Although rainfall activity intensified briefly during early July, the monsoon experienced two prolonged break phases later in the month, limiting overall precipitation.

Even after a stronger system became active during the final week of July, cumulative rainfall remained below normal, with the seasonal deficit widening to 16 per cent by August 3.

Historical August Rainfall Records

August traditionally remains one of the wettest months for Madhya Pradesh.

• Bhopal recorded its wettest August in 2006, receiving nearly 35 inches of rainfall, including around 12 inches in 24 hours on August 14.

• Indore witnessed a record 28 inches of August rainfall in 1944, while its highest 24-hour rainfall of about 10.5 inches was recorded on August 22, 2020.

• Gwalior holds a record of nearly 8.5 inches of rainfall in a single day on August 10, 1927.

• Jabalpur registered an exceptional 44 inches of rainfall during August 1923, including nearly 13 inches in one day.

• Ujjain also experienced record-breaking rainfall in 2006, when around 35 inches of rain was recorded during August.

With August historically delivering some of the season's heaviest rainfall, meteorologists expect the upcoming weather systems to help reduce the current rainfall deficit if they remain active over the state.