China’s Mega-Dam on the Brahmaputra Raises Concerns for India and Bangladesh

Overview of the Project

Located in the Nyingchi region of southeastern Tibet, near the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, the dam is part of a large-scale hydropower development initiative approved by Beijing in December 2023. The total investment is estimated at approximately ¥1.2 trillion (₹13.95 lakh crore). The infrastructure will feature five cascade hydropower stations, and it is projected to surpass the size and capacity of the Three Gorges Dam, currently the largest in the world.

The electricity generated will support local needs in Tibet and be transmitted to other regions of China. The Chinese government claims the project will contribute to regional development and promote clean energy use. However, the absence of a formal water-sharing treaty with downstream countries has intensified regional apprehensions.

India’s Strategic and Environmental Concerns

India views the dam as a potential "ticking water bomb" due to the lack of regulatory oversight or bilateral agreements to manage transboundary rivers. Key concerns include:

• Manipulation of River Flow: The ability to control water levels through dam operations raises fears of artificial floods or droughts in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, potentially endangering millions.
• Security Risks: In times of geopolitical tension, the project could be used to apply strategic pressure.
• Ecological Impact: The dam may disrupt sediment flow, aquatic biodiversity, and natural ecosystems, impacting both livelihoods and food security.
• Data Transparency: China does not provide real-time water flow data under any binding mechanism, making risk assessment difficult for India.

Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu warned that such unilateral actions pose an existential threat to indigenous communities and could be weaponized during conflict.

Potential Impact on Bangladesh

As a lower riparian country, Bangladesh is vulnerable to upstream developments on the Brahmaputra. Possible consequences include:

• Flooding: Sudden water discharges could exacerbate flood risks during monsoon seasons.
• Water Scarcity: Water retention during dry periods could reduce agricultural water availability.
• Reduced Fertility: Sediment trapped by the dam could decrease the fertility of deltaic regions, affecting crop yields.
• Fish and Biodiversity Loss: Changes in water temperature and flow could disrupt aquatic life, with implications for fisheries and local economies.

Scientific and Seismic Risks

• Seismic Vulnerability: The Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo lies in a seismically active zone. An earthquake-triggered dam failure could lead to catastrophic flooding downstream.
• Environmental Fragility: The high-altitude region is ecologically sensitive, with rich biodiversity. Dam construction and tunneling may increase the risk of landslides and soil erosion.
• Impact on Ecosystems: Altered water flows can interfere with fish migration, impact wetlands, and reduce natural resilience to climate change.

Legal and Diplomatic Context

China is not a signatory to the 1997 UN Convention on the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, which promotes equitable use of shared rivers. Furthermore:

• No binding bilateral or multilateral water-sharing agreement exists between China, India, and Bangladesh.
• China shares limited flood season hydrological data, which it can suspend unilaterally.
• Beijing maintains that the project is a domestic matter, resisting international calls for transparency.

Past Precedents: A Pattern of Unilateralism

China has previously built several dams on transboundary rivers, including the Mekong and the upper Brahmaputra. In the Mekong basin, upstream Chinese dams have been linked to:

• Sudden droughts and unseasonal water level drops
• Disruption of fisheries and riverine ecosystems
• Regional tensions due to lack of data sharing

Similar patterns have been observed in the Brahmaputra basin, with projects like the Zangmu Dam, intensifying apprehensions in downstream countries.

The construction of the world’s largest dam on the Brahmaputra's Great Bend represents a major geopolitical development with significant implications for water security, ecology, and regional stability in South Asia. Without a formal water-sharing framework or environmental safeguards, India and Bangladesh remain exposed to the consequences of upstream decisions made by China.