Madhya Pradesh is likely to witness another spell of heavy rainfall on Saturday, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issuing alerts for 21 districts, including Jabalpur, Shahdol and Sagar. Several parts of the state could receive 4 to 8 inches of rain over the next 24 hours as a strong weather system remains active over eastern Madhya Pradesh.

According to the IMD Bhopal, the system is expected to have its strongest impact over the eastern parts of the state. Heavy rainfall is likely to continue for the next four days, particularly across the Jabalpur, Rewa, Sagar and Shahdol divisions.

Heavy Rain Alert

Three districts — Narmadapuram, Chhatarpur and Umaria — are likely to receive very heavy rainfall on Saturday.

Heavy rain has also been forecast for Jabalpur, Sagar, Raisen, Narsinghpur, Chhindwara, Seoni, Balaghat, Mandla, Dindori, Anuppur, Shahdol, Katni, Panna, Tikamgarh, Rewa, Mauganj, Sidhi and Singrauli.

Several other districts, including Bhopal, Sehore, Rajgarh, Vidisha, Indore, Dhar, Alirajpur, Burhanpur, Barwani, Khandwa, Khargone, Jhabua, Ujjain, Neemuch, Agar-Malwa, Mandsaur, Shajapur, Dewas, Ratlam, Betul, Harda, Gwalior, Shivpuri, Datia, Morena, Bhind, Sheopur, Satna, Maihar, Damoh and Niwari, may also receive rain ranging from light to intense spells.

Strong System Over East MP

Weather expert Shailendra Kumar Naik said a low-pressure area that developed over the Bay of Bengal has intensified into a depression. Its impact is expected to remain strongest over eastern Madhya Pradesh, resulting in heavy rainfall across several districts.

The eastern divisions have already experienced uneven rainfall during the monsoon season. Despite recent spells of intense rain, several districts continue to record below-normal rainfall.

Waterlogging and Overflow

Heavy rain has already created problems in parts of the state.

In Khargone's Gogawan area, continuous rainfall caused the Satak reservoir to overflow. The reservoir has a capacity of around 18.38 million cubic metres and overflowed after two years.

In Satna, intermittent rain affected rural areas, particularly the low-lying and hilly regions. Water from the hills has increased the flow of the waterfall near Dharkundi Ashram, with water entering parts of the premises.

Waterlogging was also reported at the Kotor Nagar Parishad office and nearby shops. Water entered a ward of the community health centre, following which pregnant women were referred to the district hospital.

On the Birsinghpur-Semariya road, the Mau river was reported to be flowing over the bridge, raising concerns for commuters.

Rainfall Deficit Persists

According to the IMD, 12 districts have so far recorded rainfall above their average levels, including Bhopal, Guna, Sehore, Rajgarh, Gwalior, Anuppur, Bhind, Burhanpur, Dewas, Barwani, Khandwa and Khargone.

However, 43 districts continue to record deficient rainfall.

Jabalpur, Rewa, Sagar and Shahdol divisions have recorded rainfall deficits of up to 19 per cent. Several districts in eastern MP, including Balaghat, Chhatarpur, Chhindwara, Damoh, Dindori, Jabalpur, Katni, Mandla, Panna, Rewa, Sagar, Satna, Seoni, Shahdol, Sidhi, Singrauli, Tikamgarh and Umaria, have recorded deficits ranging from 2 to 54 per cent.

Parts of western Madhya Pradesh have also received less rainfall than normal.

Monsoon Pattern This Season

The state recorded 14 per cent below-normal rainfall in June. Rainfall improved during the early part of July, but the monsoon subsequently entered two periods of weaker activity.

A strong weather system became active again towards the end of the period, bringing widespread rain. While July's rainfall quota was eventually met, the deficit accumulated during June has not been completely recovered.

Madhya Pradesh receives around 37.3 inches of normal annual rainfall, although the average varies significantly between districts.

Historic August Rainfall Records

August is traditionally an important rainfall month for several major cities in Madhya Pradesh.

Bhopal recorded around 35 inches of rainfall in August 2006, its highest monthly August total. The city received nearly 12 inches in 24 hours on August 14 that year.

Indore recorded around 28 inches of rainfall in August 1944, while its highest 24-hour August rainfall was around 10.5 inches on August 22, 2020.

Gwalior recorded around 8.5 inches in 24 hours on August 10, 1927. Its highest monthly August rainfall was around 28 inches in 1916.

Jabalpur recorded around 44 inches of rainfall in August 1923. On August 20 that year, the city received nearly 13 inches of rain within 24 hours.

Ujjain recorded around 35 inches of rainfall in August 2006, including approximately 12 inches in 24 hours.

With the strong weather system currently active, authorities and residents in vulnerable districts are likely to remain watchful over the next several days, particularly in areas prone to flooding, waterlogging and river overflow.