In the sweltering streets of Dhaka, a gunshot shattered the fragile calm on December 12, 2025. Motorcycle-riding assailants fired at Sharif Usman Hadi, a firebrand spokesperson for the radical Inquilab Mancha group, leaving him critically wounded in broad daylight.
Hadi, no stranger to controversy with his anti-India rants and vocal opposition to ousted leader Sheikh Hasina, was gearing up as an independent candidate for February's national elections.
As Bangladesh's interim government under Muhammad Yunus scrambles to investigate—poring over CCTV footage and deploying police teams—the finger of blame has swiftly pointed across the border: straight at India.
This isn't just a street crime; it's a diplomatic powder keg. Dhaka summoned India's High Commissioner, demanding answers and cooperation to nab the alleged shooter, who they claim fled to Indian soil. Bangladesh's foreign ministry didn't mince words: India's territory is allegedly becoming a "safe haven" for those plotting against their stability.
They tie this to broader grievances—Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League loyalists, exiled in India since her dramatic 2024 ouster amid student-led unrest, are accused of orchestrating anti-government plots from afar. Hasina's recent death sentence in November for protest-related charges only fueled Dhaka's extradition pleas, which New Delhi has stonewalled, citing political motivations and treaty clauses against such handovers.
India's response? A firm, categorical rejection. "We will never allow our territory to be used for activities against Bangladesh's interests," thundered officials, dismissing claims of harboring assassins or facilitating Hasina's alleged meddling.
New Delhi reiterated its commitment to free, fair elections in its neighbor—elections that could redefine Bangladesh's post-Hasina era—and gently reminded Yunus's team that maintaining law and order is Dhaka's job, not Delhi's. No proof of the shooter's escape? No dice, says India; bring evidence, and we'll act.
As someone who's watched South Asian geopolitics unfold like a tense chess match, this feels like a dangerous pivot. Historically, India and Bangladesh have been unlikely bedfellows—cooperating on trade, border management, counter-terrorism, and even thorny river-sharing disputes.
The 1971 liberation war scars run deep with gratitude on one side. But Yunus's interim setup, born from chaos, seems to breed suspicion. Whispers of Bangladesh cozying up to Pakistan—evident in recent SAARC-minus-India bloc talks—add fuel to the fire. Radical elements, once leashed under Hasina, now roam freer, and attacks like Hadi's could be election sabotage or score-settling gone wrong.
The real casualty here? Trust. With polls looming, this trust deficit risks derailing regional stability. India can't afford a destabilized neighbor; unchecked radicals could spill over borders, boosting extremism from Afghanistan to the Bay of Bengal.
Bangladesh, meanwhile, needs Delhi's economic lifeline—remittances, investments, and that massive shared frontier with West Bengal, the longest land border India has.
Yunus must prioritize evidence over accusations to rebuild bridges. India, too, should fast-track diplomatic backchannels, perhaps offering joint probes to douse flames.
Otherwise, what started as a Dhaka alleyway hit could echo through capitals, turning neighbors into rivals. In a region already fractured by giants like China, cooler heads must prevail. The stakes? A peaceful, democratic Bangladesh—or a tinderbox that ignites us all.
